« Previous
Next »
European Journal of Internal Medicine
Volume 19, Issue 3
, Pages 155-164
, May 2008
Prognostication — The lost skill of medicine
References
- . The ellipsis of prognosis in modern medical thought. Soc Sci Med. 1997;44:301–315
- . Attitude and self-reported practice regarding prognostication in a national sample of internists. Arch Intern Med. 1998;158:2389–2395
- Information needs of cancer patients in west Scotland: cross sectional survey of patients' views. BMJ. 1996;318:724–726
- . Collusion in doctor-patient communication about imminent death: an ethnographic study. BMJ. 2000;321:1376–1381
- A re-evaluation of the duration of survival after the onset of dementia. N Engl J Med. 2001;344:1111–1116
- Survival after initial diagnosis of Alzheimer disease. Ann Intern Med. 2004;140:501–509
- . High short-term mortality in hospitalised patients with advanced dementia. Arch Intern Med. 2001;161:594–599
- . Survival in end-stage dementia following acute illness. JAMA. 2000;284:47–52
- . Futility and the critically ill adult patient: a framework. Curr Anaesth Crit Care. 2006;17:255–262
- . Critical care use during the course of serious illness. Am J Respir Crit Care Med. 2004;170:981–986
- . A retrospective review of a large cohort of patients undergoing the process of withholding or withdrawal of life support. Crit Care Med. 1997;25:1324–1331
- . Communication of prognostic information for critically ill patients. Chest. 2005;128:1728–1735
- . Telling the truth about cancer: views of elderly patients and their relatives. Irish Med J. 2000;93:104–105
- Cancer patients' information needs and information seeking behaviour: in depth interview study. BMJ. 2000;320:909–913
- Relationship between cancer patients' predictions of prognosis and their treatment preferences. JAMA. 1998;21:1709–1714
- . Telling the truth about terminal cancer. JAMA. 1998;21:1746–1748
- . Screening for prostate cancer. Lancet. 2003;361:1122–1128
- . The effects of age and chronic illness on life expectancy after a diagnosis of colorectal cancer: implications for screening. Ann Intern Med. 2006;145:646–653
- . Cancer screening and life expectancy of Canadian patients with kidney failure. Nephrol Dial Transpl. 2002;17:1786–1789
- . Management of cancer in the older person: a practical approach. Oncologist. 2000;5:224–237
- . Medical Decision Making. Boston: Butterworths; 1988;
- Irish Life Tables No. 14. Ireland: Central Statistics Office; 2001–2003;www.cso.ie
- . A convenient approximation of life expectancy (The “DEALE”). I. Validation of the method. Am J Med. 1982;73:883–888
- . A convenient approximation of life expectancy (The “DEALE”). II. Use in medical decision-making. Am J Med. 1982;73:889–897
- . Decision analysis and the implementation of research findings. BMJ. 1998;317:405–409
- . Decision analysis in patient care. Lancet. 2001;358:571–574
- Primer on medical decision analysis: part 1 — getting started. Med Decis Making. 1997;17:123–125
- . Gains in life expectancy from medical interventions — standardising data on outcomes. N Engl J Med. 1998;339:380–386
- . A rational framework for decision making by the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE). Lancet. 2002;360:711–715
- . Multivariate statistical analysis for pathologists. Part 1. The logistic model. Am J Clin Pathol. 1996;105:115–126
- . Logistic regression. In: Armitage P, Colton T editor. Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. New York: J. Wiley; 1998;p. 2316–2327
- . Primer of Applied Regression and Analysis of Variance. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc.; 1990;
- . Applied Logistic Regression. New York: Wiley; 1989;
- . Lobar pneumonia. In: Osler W editors. The Principles and Practice of Medicine. Edinburgh: Young J. Pentland; 1901;p. 108–137
- Community acquired pneumonia: aetiology and usefulness of severity criteria on admission. Thorax. 1996;51:1016–1236
- Defining community acquired pneumonia severity on presentation to hospital: an international derivation and validation study. Thorax. 2003;58:377–382
- A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with community-acquired pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 1997;336:243–250
- . Clinical assessments as predictors of one year survival after hospitalisation: implications for prognostic stratification. J Clin Epidemiol. 1988;41:275–284
- . Assessing illness severity: does clinical judgement work?. J Chron Dis. 1986;39:439–452
- . Measuring severity of illness: homogeneous case mix groups. Med Care. 1983;21:14–30
- . Treatment of myocardial infarction in a coronary care unit: a two year experience with 250 patients. Am J Cardiol. 1967;20:457–464
- A new coronary prognostic index. Lancet. 1969;1:274–278
- . Assessment of outcome after severe brain damage. Lancet. 1975;1:480–484
- The injury severity score: a method for describing patients with multiple injuries and evaluating emergency care. J Trauma. 1974;14:187–196
- . Trauma index: an aid in the evaluation of injury victims. J Trauma. 1971;11:711–714
- Committee on Medical Aspects of Automotive Safety: rating the severity of tissue damage II. The Comprehensive Scale. JAMA. 1972;220:277–280
- . A decision theory approach to measuring severity of illness. Health Serv Res. 1975;10:97–104
- Severity of illness and the relationship between intensive care and survival. Am J Publ Health. 1982;72:449–454
- . Statistical validation of a severity of illness measure. Am J Publ Health. 1983;73:878–884
- Frailty and injuries in later life: the FICSIT trials. J Am Geriatr Soc. 1993;41:263–296
- . Assessment of older people: self-maintaining and instrumental activities of daily living. Gerontologist. 1969;9:179–186
- . “Mini-Mental State” a practical method for grading the cognitive state of patients for the clinician. J Psych Res. 1975;12:189–198
- . Development and validation of a geriatric depression screening scale. J Psych R. 1983;17:37–49
- . Importance of functional measures in predicting mortality amongst older hospitalised patients. JAMA. 1998;279:1187–1198
- . The diagnoses and co-morbidity in the hospital practice of acute internal medicine. Eur J Int Med. 2007;18(6):467–473
- . A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation. J Chron Dis. 1987;40:373–383
- . Prediction of mortality of patients with suspected heart failure by brain natriuretic peptide concentrations >
100 pg/ml: comparison of a clinical model with brain natriuretic peptide concentrations. Heart. 2006;92:1512–1513 - Plasma natriuretic peptide levels and the risk of cardiovascular events and death. N Engl J Med. 2004;350:655–663
- . New disseminated intravascular coagulation score: a useful tool to predict mortality in comparison with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Logistic Organ Dysfunction scores. Crit Care Med. 2006;34:314–320
- . Surgery and portal hypertension. In: Child CG editors. The Liver and Portal Hypertension. Philadelphia: Saunders; 1964;p. 50
- . Immediate computed tomography scanning of acute stroke is cost-effective and improves quality of life. Stroke. 2004;35:2477–2483
- . Computed tomography severity index is a predictor of outcomes for severe pancreatitis. Am J Surg. 2000;179:352–355
- Identifying the sick: can biochemical measurements be used to aid decision making on presentation to the accident and emergency department?. Br J Anaesth. 2005;94:735–741
- . Comparison of the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score and APACHE II in nonsurgical emergency department patients. Acad Emerg Med. 2003;10:1040–1048
- . Assessing the generalizability of prognostic information. Ann Int Med. 1999;130:515–524
- . The surgeon's “gut feeling” as a predictor of post-operative outcome. Ann Royal Coll Surg Engl. 1994;76:277–278
- The SUPPORT prognostic model: objective estimates of survival for seriously ill hospitalised adults. Ann Intern Med. 1995;122:191–203
- Prognostic judgments and triage decisions for patients with acute congestive heart failure. Chest. May 2002;121(5):1610–1617
- Physicians' survival predictions for patients with acute congestive heart failure. Arch Intern Med. May 12 1997;157(9):1001–1007
- . Predicting mortality among patients hospitalised for heart failure. Derivation and validation of a clinical model. JAMA. 2003;290:2581–2587
- The Seattle Heart Failure Model. Prediction of survival in heart failure. Circulation. 2006;113:1424–1433
- . Physicians' judgments of survival after medical management and mortality risk reduction due to revascularization procedures for patients with coronary artery disease. Chest. Jul 2002;122(1):122–133
- . Referral for coronary angiography after exercise testing: traditional decision-making versus decision analysis. Q J Med. 1995;88:401–408
- . Likely gains in life expectancy of patients with coronary artery disease treated with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors, as predicted by a decision analysis model. Eur J Surg. 1997;163:539–546
- . The answer to “What are my chances, doctor?” depends on whom is asked: prognostic disagreement and inaccuracy for critically ill patients. Crit Care Med. Aug 1989;17(8):827–833
- . Ego bias, reverse ego bias, and physicians' prognostic. Crit Care Med. Dec 1991;19(12):1533–1539
- Predicting future functional status for seriously ill hospitalised adults: the SUPPORT prognostic model. Ann Int Med. 1995;122:342–350
- . Prediction of outcome from critical illness: a comparison of clinical judgement with a prediction rule. Arch Intern Med. 1989;149:1083–1086
- . How well can physicians estimate mortality in a medical intensive care unit?. Med Decis Making. 1989;9:125–132
- Predicting outcome in intensive therapy units: a comparison of APACHE II with subjective assessments. Intensive Care Med. 1991;17:159–163
- . Comparison of clinical assessment with APACHE II for predicting mortality risk in patients admitted to a medical intensive care unit. JAMA. 1989;260:1739–1742
- Outcome prediction models on admission in a medical intensive care unit: do they predict individual outcome?. Crit Care Med. 1990;18:1111–1117
- . Tidal volume maintenance during weaning with pressure support. Am J Resp Crit Care Med. 1995;152:1034–1040
- . A prospective study of indexes predicting the outcome of trials of weaning from mechanical ventilation. N Engl J Med. 1991;324:1445–1450
- . Unplanned extubation: clinical predictors for re-intubation. Chest. 1994;105:1496–1503
- . Unplanned extubations. Chest. 1994;105:1804–1807
- . The inability of physicians to predict the outcome of in-hospital resuscitation. J Gen Intern Med. 1996;11:16–22
- . Pre-arrest morbidity index in prediction of survival after cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Am J Med. 1990;88:201
- . Extent and determinants of error in doctors' prognoses in terminally ill patients: prospective cohort study. BMJ. 2000;320:469–472
- . The Palliative Prognostic Index: a scoring system for survival prediction of terminally ill cancer patients. Support Care Cancer. 1999;7:128–133
- Successful validation of the Palliative Prognostic Score (P&P Score) in terminally ill cancer patients. J Pain Symp Manag. 1999;7:240–247
- Does prediction of outcome alter patient management?. Lancet. 1993;341:1487–1491
- . Decision support and the appropriate use of fibrinolysis in myocardial infarction. Eff Clin Pract. 2001;4:1–9
- Do objective estimates of chances of survival influence decisions to withhold or withdraw treatment?. Med Decis Making. 1990;10:163–171
- Re-evaluation of the duration of survival after the onset of dementia. N Eng J Med. 2001;344:1111–1116
- . Survival and recurrence following stroke. The Framingham study. Stroke. 1982;13:290–295
- Stroke after coronary artery operation: incidence, correlates, outcome and cost. Ann Thorac Surg. 2000;69:1053–1056
- . Treatment of chronic nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in the elderly. Med Decision Making. 1992;12:239–249
- . Mortality among persons with non-insulin dependent diabetes. In: Harris MI, Cowie CC, Stern MP, Boyko EJ, Reiber GE, Bennett PH editor. Diabetes in America. 2nd ed. Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health; 1995;p. 233–258
- . Impact of diabetes on coronary artery disease in women and men: a meta-analysis of prospective studies. Diabetes Care. 2000;23:962–968
- . Diabetes health status and risk factors. In: Hux J, Booth G, Slaughter PM, Laupacis A editor. Diabetes in Ontario. An Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences Practice Atlas. vol. 4:Canadian Diabetes Association; 2003;p. 77–96494. Accessed at www.ices.on.ca 22 May 2003
- . Effect of enalapril on mortality and the development of heart failure on asymptomatic patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fractions. N Engl J Med. 1992;327:685–691
- . Effect of enalapril on survival in patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fractions and congestive heart failure. N Engl J Med. 1991;325:293–302
- . Effects of enalapril on mortality in severe congestive heart failure. Results of the Cooperative North Scandinavian Enalapril Survival Study (CONSENSUS). N Engl J Med. 1987;316:1429–1435
- The body-mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea, and exercise capacity index in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. N Engl J Med. 2004;350:1005–1012
- . The outcome of coronary artery bypass surgery as predicted by decision analysis: the influence of age, disease severity and ventricular function. Theor Surg. 1992;7:57–75
- Survival of medically treated patients in the Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS) Registry. Circulation. 1982;66:562–568
- . Excerpts from USRDS 2002 Annual Report. US Department of Health and Human Services. The National Institute of Health. National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases. Am J Kidney Dis. 2003;41(Suppl. 2):S151–S164
- Prognostic factors in breast cancer. College of American Pathologists Consensus Statement 1999. Arch Pathol Lab Med. 2000;124:966–978
- . Revisions in the International System for Staging Lung Cancer. Chest. 1997;111:1710–1717
- . Colon cancer survival rates with the new American Joint Committee on Cancer sixth edition staging. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2004;96:1420–1425
- HIV-1 disease progression and AIDS-defining disorders in rural Uganda. Lancet. 1997;350:245–250
- . Prediction of in-hospital mortality by brain natriuretic peptide levels and other independent variables in acutely ill patients with suspected heart disease. Can J Cardiol. 2004;20:686–690
- A prediction rule to identify low-risk patients with pulmonary embolism. Arch Int Med. 2006;166:169–175
- Predicting mortality in nursing home residents with lower respiratory tract infection. JAMA. 2001;286:2427–2436
- . Does concurrent or previous illness accurately predict cardiac arrest survival?. Resuscitation. 2000;47:267–271
- . Pre-arrest morbidity and other correlates of survival after in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest. Am J Med. 1989;87:28–34
- . Prediction of failure to survive following in-hospital cardiopulmonary resuscitation: comparison of two predictive instruments. Resuscitation. 1994;28:21–25
- . Review: patient related predictors of cardiopulmonary resuscitation of hospitalised patients. Age Ageing. 1993;22:464–475
- . Severity-of-illness scores for neutropenic cancer patients in an intensive care unit: which is the best predictor? Do multiple assessment times improve the predictive value?. Crit Care Med. 1998;26:488–493
- Predictors of 30-day mortality in the era of reperfusion for acute myocardial infarction. Results from an international trial of 41,021 patients. GUSTO-I Investigators. Circulation. 1995;91:1659–1668
- . A time-insensitive predictive instrument for acute myocardial mortality: a multicenter study. Med Care. 1991;29:1196–1211
- The TIMI Risk Score for unstable angina/non-ST elevation MI. JAMA. 2000;284:835–842
- Predictors of hospital mortality in the global registry of acute coronary events. Arch Intern Med. 2003;163:2345–2353
- A simple score (ABCD) to identify individuals at high early risk of stroke after transient ischaemic attack. Lancet. 2005;366:29–36
- The Stroke Prognosis Instrument II (SPI-II), a clinical prediction instrument for patients with transient ischaemia and nondisabling ischaemic stroke. Stroke. 2000;31:456–462
- . Risk assessment after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage. Gut. 1996;38:316–321
- . BLEED: a classification tool to predict outcomes in patients with acute upper and lower gastrointestinal hemorrhage. Crit Care Med. 1997;25:1125–1132
- A model to predict survival in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts. Hepatology. 2000;31:864–871
- Corticosteroid therapy of alcoholic hepatitis. Gastroenterology. 1978;75:193–199
- Prognostic signs and the role of operative management in acute pancreatitis. Surg Gynecol Obstet. 1974;139:69–81
- . APACHE II: a severity of disease classification system. Crit Care Med. 1985;13:818–829
- Re-evaluation and modification of the Stuivenberg Hospital Acute Renal Failure (SHARF) scoring system for the prognosis of acute renal failure: an independent mutlicentre, prospective study. Nephrol Dial Transpl. 2004;19:2282–2288
- . A new Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II) based on a European-North American multicenter study. JAMA. 1993;270:2957–2963
- Mortality Prediction Models (MPM II) based on an international cohort of intensive care patients. JAMA. 1993;270:2478–2486
- . Validation of a modified early warning score in medical admissions. Q J Med. 2001;94:521–526
- . The Simple Clinical Score predicts mortality for 30 days after admission to an acute medical unit. Q J Med. 2006;99:771–781
- . The Rapid Acute Physiology Score. Am J Emerg Med. 1987;5:278–286
- Prognostic usefulness of the six-minute walk in patients with advanced congestive heart failure secondary to ischaemic or non-ischaemic cardiomyopathy. Am J Cardiol. 2001;88:987–993
- . Validation of clinical classification schemes for predicting stroke: results from the National Registry of Atrial Fibrillation. JAMA. 2001;285:2864–2870
- Development of a contemporary bleeding risk model for elderly warfarin recipients. Chest. 2006;130:1390–1396
- . How many patients in atrial fibrillation admitted to an acute medical unit will benefit from oral anticoagulation? Application of the results of the major randomised controlled trials to 141 consecutive, unselected, elderly patients using a decision support computer program. Eur J Int Med. 2005;16:97–104
- . Validation of the Archimedes Diabetes model. Diabetes Care. 2003;26:3102–3110
- . The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56). Clin Sci. 2001;101:671–679
- Diabetologia. 2004;47:1747–1759
- The CORE Diabetes Model: projecting long-term clinical outcomes, costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions in diabetes mellitus (Type I and 2) to support clinical and reimbursement decision-making. Curr Med Res Opin. 2004;20:S5–S26
- . Functional assessment staging (FAST). Psychopharmacol Bull. 1988;24:653–659
- . Estimated prognosis for nursing home residents with advanced dementia. JAMA. 2004;291:2734–2740
- In: Greene FL, Page DL, Fleming ID, Fritz A, Balch CM, Haller DG, Morrow M editor. AJCC Cancer Staging Manual. 6th Edition. USA: Lippincott Raven; 2002;
- Population-based validation of the prognostic model ADJUVANT! for early breast cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2005;23:2716–2725
- . Referral for coronary angiography after exercise testing: traditional decision-making versus decision analysis. Q J Med. 1995;88:401–408
- . Likely gains in life expectancy of patients with coronary artery disease treated with HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors, as predicted by a decision analysis model. Eur J Surg. 1997;163:539–546
- . Determining the need for coronary revascularisation by an exercise test assessment computer program. Eur J Int Med. 2004;15:415–421
- Prognostic value of a treadmill exercise score in outpatients with suspected coronary artery disease. N Engl J Med. 1991;325:849–853
- Clinical exercise test predictors of all-cause mortality. Chest. 2001;120:1003–1013
- . Exercise capacity and mortality among men referred for exercise testing. N Engl J Med. 2002;346:793–801
- Prediction of coronary artery disease using factor categories. Circulation. 1998;97:1837–1847
- A validated prediction model for all forms of acute coronary syndrome. JAMA. 2004;291:2727–2733
- Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project. Eur Heart J. 2003;24:987–1003
- . N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and long-term mortality in stable coronary heart disease. N Engl J Med. 2005;352:666–675
- . A multidimensional grading system (BODE Index) as a predictor for hospitalisation for COPD. Chest. 2005;128:3810–3816
- . Predicting functional outcome in acute stroke: comparison of a simple six variable model with other predictive systems and informal clinical prediction. J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2004;75:401–405
- . Prediction of benefit from carotid endarterectomy in individual patients: a risk-modelling study. Lancet. 1999;353:2105–2110
- . Prediction of functional outcome after stroke. Comparison of the Orpington Prognostic Scale and the NIH Stroke Scale. Stroke. 1998;29:1838–1842
- . A modified National Institute of Health Stroke Scale for use in stroke clinical trials. Stroke. 2001;32:1310–1317
- . Development and validation of a prognostic index for 4-year mortality in older adults. JAMA. 2006;295:801–808
- Development and validation of a prognostic index for 1-year mortality in older adults after hospitalisation. JAMA. 2001;285:2987–2994
- . Global risk scores and exercise testing for predictive all-cause mortality in a preventative medicine program. JAMA. 2004;292:1462–1468
- . Rapid Emergency Medicine Score can predict long-term mortality in nonsurgical emergency department patients. Acad Emerg Med. 2004;11:1008–1013
- . Risk stratification for in-hospital mortality in acutely decompensated heart failure. JAMA. 2005;293:572–580
- Prognosis in primary biliary cirrhosis: model for decision making. Hepatology. 1989;10:1–7
- . Evaluation of a clinical score for prognostic stratification of elderly stroke patients. Age Ageing. 1994;23:492–498
- Effect on the duration of mechanical ventilation of identifying patients capable of breathing spontaneously. N Engl J Med. 1996;335:1864–1869
- 2001 SCCM/ESICM/ACCP/ATS/SIS International Sepsis Definitions Conference. Crit Care Med. 2003;31:1250–1256
PII: S0953-6205(07)00251-8
doi: 10.1016/j.ejim.2007.09.002
© 2007 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
« Previous
Next »
European Journal of Internal Medicine
Volume 19, Issue 3
, Pages 155-164
, May 2008
