European Journal of Internal Medicine
Volume 20, Issue 6 , Pages 640-644 , October 2009

How accurate are doctors, nurses and medical students at predicting life expectancy?

  • Michael G. Clarke

      Affiliations

    • Department of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgery, Derriford Hospital, Plymouth PL6 8DH, United Kingdom
    • ,
  • P. Ewings

      Affiliations

    • National Institute for Health Research Design Service, Musgrove Park Hospital, Taunton TA1 5DA, United Kingdom
    • ,
  • T. Hanna

      Affiliations

    • Department of General Surgery, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 3LJ, United Kingdom
    • ,
  • L. Dunn

      Affiliations

    • Peninsula Medical School, John Bull Building, Plymouth PL6 8BU, United Kingdom
    • ,
  • T. Girling

      Affiliations

    • Peninsula Medical School, John Bull Building, Plymouth PL6 8BU, United Kingdom
    • ,
  • A.L. Widdison

      Affiliations

    • Department of General Surgery, Royal Cornwall Hospital, Truro, Cornwall, TR1 3LJ, United Kingdom
    • Corresponding Author InformationCorresponding author. Tel.: +44 1872 252620; fax: +44 1872 253572.

Received 26 October 2008 ,Revised 21 June 2009 ,Accepted 26 June 2009.

References 

  1. Wilson J, Graham J, MacDonagh R. Patient life expectancy: a vital element in planning treatment?. BJU Int. 2004;93:461–463
  2. Royal College of Radiologists' Clinical Oncology Information Network . British Association of Urological Surgeons: guidelines on the management of prostate cancer. BJU Int. 1999;84:987–1014
  3. Walz J, Gallina A, Perrotte P, Jeldres C, Trinh QD, Hutterer GC, et al. Clinicians are poor raters of life-expectancy before radical prostatectomy or definitive radiotherapy for localized prostate cancer. BJU Int. 2007;100:1254–1258
  4. Wilson JRM, Clarke MG, Ewings P, Graham JD, MacDonagh R. The assessment of patient life-expectancy: how accurate are urologists and oncologists?. BJU Int. 2005;95:794–798
  5. Vigano A, Dorgan M, Bruera E, Suarez-Almazor ME. The relative accuracy of the clinical estimation of the duration of life for patients with end of life cancer. Cancer. 2000;86:170–176
  6. Glare P, Virik K, Jones M, Hudson M, Eychmuller S, Simes J, et al. A systematic review of physicians' survival predictions in terminally ill cancer patients. BMJ. 2003;327:195
  7. Stone PC, Lund S. Predicting prognosis in patients with advanced cancer. Ann Oncol. 2007;18:971–976
  8. Tanneberger S, Malavasi I, Mariano P, Pannuti F, Strocchi E. Planning palliative or terminal care: the dilemma of doctors' prognoses in terminally ill cancer patients. Ann Oncol. 2002;13:1320–1322
  9. Christakis NA, Lamont EB. Extent and determinants of error in physicians' prognoses in terminally ill patients. West J Med. 2000;172:310–313
  10. Krahn MD, Bremner KE, Asaria J, Alibhai SMH, Nam R, Tomlinson G, et al. The ten-year rule revisited: accuracy of clinicians' estimates of life expectancy in patients with localised prostate cancer. Urology. 2002;60:258–263
  11. Alibhai SMH, Krahn MD, Cohen MM, Fleshner NE, Tomlinson GA, Naglie G. Is there age bias in the treatment of localized prostate cancer?. Cancer. 2004;100:72–81
  12. Koch MO, Miller DA, Butler R, Lebos L, Collings D, Smith JA. Are we selecting the right patients for treatment of localized prostate cancer? Results of an actuarial analysis. Urology. 1998;51:197–202
  13. Audisio RA, Ramesh H, Longo WE, Zbar AP, Pope D. Preoperative assessment of surgical risk in oncogeriatric patients. Oncologist. 2005;10:262–268
  14. Kirwan JR. Clinical judgement in rheumatoid arthritis. I. Rheumatologists' opinions and the development of paper patients. Ann Rheum Dis. 1983;42:644–647
  15. Brackenridge RDC, Croxson RS, Mackenzie R. Medical selection of life risks. 5th ed.. Palgrave Macmillan; 2006;
  16. Government Actuary's Department. http://www.gad.gov.uk/Demography_Data/Life_Tables/Interim_life_tables.asp.
  17. Maltoni M, Caraceni A, Brunelli C, Broeckaert B, Christakis N, Eychmueller S, et al. Prognostic factors in advanced cancer patients: evidence-based clinical recommendations — a study by the steering committee of the European Association for Palliative Care. J Clin Oncol. 2005;23:6240–6248
  18. Llobera J, Esteva M, Rifa J, Benito E, Terrasa J, Rojas C, et al. Terminal cancer: duration and prediction of survival time. Eur J Cancer. 2000;36:2036–2043
  19. Singh R, O'Brien TS. Comorbidity assessment in localised prostate cancer: a review of currently available techniques. Eur Urol. 2004;46:28–41
  20. Morita T, Tsunoda J, Inoue S, Chihara S. The Palliative Prognostic Index: a scoring system for survival prediction of terminally ill cancer patients. Supp Care Cancer. 1999;7:128–133
  21. Pirovano M, Maltoni M, Nanni O, Marinari M, Indelli M, Zaninetta G, et al. A new palliative prognostic score: a first step for the staging of terminally ill cancer patients — Italian Multicenter and Study Group on Palliative Care. J Pain Symptom Manage. 1999;17:231–239
  22. Charlson ME, Pompei P, Ales KL, MacKenzie CR. A new method of classifying prognostic comorbidity in longitudinal studies: development and validation. J Chronic Dis. 1987;40:373–383
  23. Greenfield S, Aronow HU, Elashoff RM, Watanabe D. Flaws in mortality data: the hazards of ignoring comorbid disease. JAMA. 1988;260:2253–2255
  24. New Classification of Physical Status . American Society of Anesthesiologists. Anesthesiology. 1963;24:111
  25. Lawton MP, Brody EM. Assessment of older people: self maintaining and instrumental activities of daily living. Gerontologist. 1969;9:179–186
  26. Brink TL, Yesavage JA, Lum O, Hursema PH, Adey M, Rose TL. Screening test for geriatric depression. Clin Gerontol. 1982;1:37–44
  27. Oken MM, Creech RH, Tormey DC, Horton J, Davis TE, McFadden TE, et al. Toxicity and response criteria of the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group. Am J Clin Oncol. 1982;5:649–655
  28. Clarke MG, Kennedy KP, MacDonagh RP. Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy — the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE). Med Decis Making. 2009 Mar-Apr;29(2):239–246
  29. Parker C. Active surveillance: towards a new paradigm in the management of early prostate cancer. Lancet Oncol. 2004;5:101–106

PII: S0953-6205(09)00125-3

doi: 10.1016/j.ejim.2009.06.009

European Journal of Internal Medicine
Volume 20, Issue 6 , Pages 640-644 , October 2009

Article Tools

* Image Usage & Resolution