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External validation of the CACE-HF risk score for mortality in patients with heart failure

      Highlights

      • To improve our management of HF we need tools to optimize the available resources.
      • The prognostic models help us differentiate the life expectancy of the HF patients.
      • We have externally validated a risk model to predict 1-year mortality.
      • The model was developed and validated in real-world cohorts of HF patients.

      Abstract

      Aims

      To validate externally the CACE-HF clinical prediction rule, which predicts 1-year mortality in patients with heart failure (HF).

      Methods

      We performed an external validation of the CACE-HF risk score in patients included in the RICA heart failure registry who had completed 1 year of follow-up, comparing the characteristics of the derivation and validation cohorts. The performance of the risk score was evaluated in terms of calibration, using calibration-in-the-large (a), calibration slope (b), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and in terms of discrimination, using the area under the ROC curve.

      Results

      In total, 3337 patients were included in the validation cohort. There were no significant differences between the derivation and validation cohorts in 1-year mortality (24.63% vs. 22.98%) or in the risk score and risk classes. The discrimination capacity in the validation cohort was slightly lower, 0.67 (95% CI: 0.65, 0.69), compared to that of the derivation cohort. Calibration results were a −0.05 (95% CI: −0.14, 0.03), indicating that the average predictions did not differ from the average outcome frequency, and b = 0.75 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.86), indicating a modest inconsistency in predictor effects. Observed mortality versus predicted mortality according to the deciles and risk classes were very similar in both cases, indicating good calibration.

      Conclusions

      The results of the external validation of the CACE-HF risk score show that although the capacity for discrimination was slightly lower than in the derivation cohort, the calibration was excellent. This tool, therefore, can assist in decision-making in the management of these patients.

      Keywords

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