Highlights
- •We have developed a simple model for T2DM prediction based on basic parameters.
- •Higher FPG levels represent greater risk of incident T2DM in the next years. In intermediate FPG values, age determines T2DM risk and BMI in a second step.
- •In individuals with lower FPG, higher FTGs increases risk of developing T2DM. The present model correctly classified 93.5% of individuals.
Abstract
Aims
To develop a simple multivariate predictor model of incident type 2 diabetes in general
population.
Methods
Participants were recruited from the Spanish [email protected] cohort study with 2570 subjects
meeting all criteria to be included in the at-risk sample studied here. Information
was collected using an interviewer-administered structured questionnaire, followed
by physical and clinical examination. CHAID algorithm, which collects the information
of individuals with and without type 2 diabetes, was used to develop a decision tree
based type 2 diabetes prediction model.
Results
156 individuals were identified as having developed type 2 diabetes (6.5% incidence).
Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) at the beginning of the study was the main predictive
variable for incident type 2 diabetes: FPG ≤ 92 mg/dL (ref.), 92–106 mg/dL (OR = 3.76,
95%CI = 2.36–6.00), > 106 mg/dL (OR = 13.21; 8.26–21.12). More than 25% of subjects
starting follow-up with FPG levels > 106 mg/dL developed type 2 diabetes. When FPG <106 mg/dL,
other variables (fasting triglycerides (FTGs), BMI or age) were needed. For levels ≤ 92 mg/dL,
higher FTGs levels increased risk of incident type 2 diabetes (FTGs > 180 mg/dL, OR = 14.57;
4.89–43.40) compared with the group of FTGs ≤ 97 mg/dL (FTGs = 97–180 mg/dL, OR = 3.12;
1.05–9.24). This model correctly classified 93.5% of individuals.
Conclusions
The type 2 diabetes prediction model is based on FTGs, FPG, age, gender, and BMI values.
Utilizing commonly available clinical data and a simple blood test, a simple tree
diagram helps identify subjects at risk of developing type 2 diabetes, even in apparently
low risk subjects with normal FPG.
Keywords
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Article info
Publication history
Published online: May 12, 2022
Accepted:
May 3,
2022
Received in revised form:
April 8,
2022
Received:
January 26,
2022
Identification
Copyright
© 2022 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
